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Analysis of 2023 Rookie Running Backs by ADP: RBs 1-4

Mike Havens begins his rundown of the running backs in this year’s class.

Zach Charbonnet

Mike Havens begins his rundown of the running backs in this year's class.

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Analysis of 2023 Rookie Running Backs by ADP: RBs 1-4
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Ed Sulek
2 months ago

I am so excited to see the first of these 2023 rookie RB analysis articles, they are far and away some of my favorite articles here on DLF that I look forward to each year. Seeing Charbonnet be graded above Gibbs was the first really fascinating moment, great stuff Mike! Like in years past will you be coming out with one final wrap up article on all this after the NFL draft?

I have the 1.01, 1.05, 1.07, and 2.07 picks in a 1 QB league and RB is my biggest position of need so I am especially interested to see the next few articles as well. Of course I know drafting for need is not a good practice to follow and usually BPA is the way to go but I am hoping a few of these RB’s will not be a “reach” come my picks. 1.01 is Bijan without question (I couldn’t be more excited to land him) but hopefully I can get at least one more RB with those other 3 picks.

The hope would be maybe Charbonnet makes it to 1.05 but I fear if he gets drafted in the NFL draft before Gibbs that might become even less likely. Do you think I should consider exploring trading the 1.05 and 1.07 to get up to either 1.02 or 1.03 which would assure me either Charbonnet or what most consider the top WR in JSN?

Mike Carlson
Reply to  Ed Sulek
2 months ago

Just when you think you know who you are going to draft this article jumps up changes things. I appreciate this and it was a good read. I hope there will be more like this come as we are getting ever so close to the NFL draft. I’m lucky/tormented with picks 1.02,1.03,1.04,1.05,2.03.,2.06 in this years draft for a 1QB PPR league. I before this article I was planning 1.02JSN, 1.03 Gibbs, 1.04 (QJ/Addison/Flowers) and trying to trade away 1.05. Now I will keep 1.05 and pick up Charbonnet. I know its best to pick BPA but which of those WR’s is best player available?
I know a big factor is dependent on where they are drafted but there is so much counter arguments on which of the QJ, Addison or Flowers is the best. A few articles are saying Flowers will be first WR off the board? Others articles raving about QJ RAS scores and Addison route tree is NFL ready. This dilemma is nice to have but clear as mud on what I do with those three WR’s to choose from.
Anybody have suggestions on which one they like most or even another rookie pick?

Ed Sulek
Reply to  Mike Carlson
2 months ago

If I had to decide between those three WRs (QJ, Addison, Flowers) I would go with QJ. I feel as if he has the highest ceiling of the three along with having one of the few body types of a true alpha WR1 in this class. Addison I just worry about his size, I think he can be good and a solid WR2 but I do not see him ever becoming a true WR1 like QJ at least has the chance to be.

I also have heard Flowers could be the first WR off the board in the NFL draft but look back on past drafts where players are taken fairly close to one another (in the same round), the higher draft position does not always become the best WR of the group. Just take the Justin Jefferson draft for example where guys like Ruggs, Jeudy, and even Lamb all went ahead of him in the 1st rd.

With all that said if being totally honest after JSN I do not feel “great” about any of the remaining WRs and is why I am a bit nervous if I stay at 1.05 in a 1 QB league that I may have to make the same decision if Bijan, JSN, Gibbs, and Charbonnet go 1-4.

Mike Carlson
Reply to  Ed Sulek
2 months ago

I really appreciate your thoughts and opinion on this. When I read your comment I noticed the similarities in our situations. I’m interested to see what Mike H. suggests with your question. Sounds like you might want to trade down to get your guy so he doesn’t get picked at 1.04. On the other hand all these different ranking sites really don’t have Charbonnet going at the earliest on 1.05. It’s a gamble but depends on your risk.
PPR Rookie Rankings: Sleeper has him at 1.06, FantasyPros 1.09, Dynasty Nerds 1.05, DLF 1.07 (rankings…. not this article)

Last edited 2 months ago by Mike Carlson
Ed Sulek
Reply to  Mike Carlson
2 months ago

Yes very true I have yet to see Charbonnet ranked in the top 4 on any of those various different sites. I suppose my worry is if Charbonnet is drafted before Gibbs then he might suddenly jump into those top 3 or 4 rankings or if you get several RB needy teams drafting in the top 4 we could see him gone before 1.05.

I found it interesting you suggested possibly trading your 1.05 in your initial post as outside of possibly trying to trade my 1.05 and 1.07 and moving up into the top 3 (after I take Bijan at 1.01) or making the 1.01 and 1.05 picks I have considered the possibly trading my 1.07 in hopes maybe I can get someone to give up a random 2024 1st for it, especially a few guys who do not currently have a 2023 1st rd pick.

My thoughts could change after the NFL draft but currently I am just not all that excited after the top 4/5 guys. I feel Bijan is a no brainer sure thing lock followed by the next tier of JSN, Gibbs, Charbonnet and then I kind of have QJ in that next tier but ahead of Addison and Flowers. I just feel like all the players going in the middle down into the late 1st are all about the same so having to pick from them will drive me crazy and I will not feel real comfortable doing so. Most would say just trade back and pick up another additional pick or two but my league does not have a very large total roster size and I already have a deep top 3 team so I am not looking to add additional picks as I would then have to cut good talent after our rookie draft.

Mike Carlson
Reply to  Ed Sulek
2 months ago

Yes, I tried trading my 1.05 as many strategies suggest to split into a few picks. I tried a late pick 2023 1st and 2023 2nd. I also tried trading for for random 2024 1st and random 2025 1st. I tried a bunch of different combos and had no takers. People were interested in my picks 1.02 and 1.03 but as we both no that is entirely a different tier and I want those picks for my self.
I hope you have better luck than I did. Maybe the NFL draft will bring you clarity on where these guys actually end up.
I would think all you need to figure out if the person holding 1.04 needs an RB. You have 1.01Bijian,1.02/1.03 JSN/Gibbs or vise versa. I would think there are too many Gibbs and JSN followers that will not budge on them so you should be safe there. That just leaves 1.04 QJ/Addison/Flowers/Charb. You can eliminate any doubt by trading down but if 1.04 is not needing a RB than theoretically you have a good chance of landing Charb at 1.05. Just my two pennies and I’m not an expert.

Last edited 2 months ago by Mike Carlson
Thomas Meeks
2 months ago

Thank you for cooling the Gibbs hype train. I never understood why he’s the consensus RB2. I like him for what he is but he has some huge red flags that people are ignoring.

Derek Lipski
2 months ago

Who the hell is dinging this article with a crappy star rating? Some Gibbs lover?
Love your stuff Mike…to the point and informative, as it is every year.

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