Aaron Rodgers is clearly one of the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. However, the past few years of his career (the so-called “beautiful mystery”) has seen him go back-and-forth on his desire to continue playing for the Green Bay Packers, leaving hints about retirement or wanting to move to, well, greener pastures. After much internal debate and even a week in seclusion, Rodgers has emerged and the Packers have agreed to finally trade him to the New York Jets. The deal is a massive one in the NFL and has serious implications in dynasty leagues as well. The Jets will reportedly receive Rodgers, the Jets 2023 first round pick (No. 15 overall) and a 2023 fifth-round pick (No. 170) in exchange for New York’s 2023 first-round pick (No. 13 overall), a 2023 second round pick (No. 42), a 2023 sixth-round pick (No. 207) and a conditional 2024 second-round pick that becomes a first if Rodgers plays 65% of the plays this season. This ends the complicated saga of Rodgers in Green Bay and will give the Jets the franchise quarterback they’ve been seeking for years. Let’s run down the new look Jets and Packers and re-evaluate player values.
Aaron Rodgers, QB NYJ
A-Rod spent his first three seasons holding Brett Favre’s clipboard, but took the world by storm when Favre was traded to, ironically, the New York Jets. In his 230 career games, he has thrown for 59,055 passing yards (ninth all-time) with 475 touchdowns (fifth all-time) and 105 interceptions, adding another 3,466 rushing yards and 35 rushing scores. Rodgers will be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer and now that induction will be pushed back at least a year.
The challenge with Rodgers is really explaining his last season. After back-to-back MVP campaigns that featured an eye-popping 85 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions, Rodgers had a “down year” last season with just 26 touchdown passes and 12 picks. He also threw for just 3,695 yards, which was his fewest in a full season since 2013. His QBR of 39.3 was also his lowest in his career. Much of this can be pinned on the loss of his Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett (whom he will now re-unite with in New York) and the loss of target hog Davante Adams. The lack of weapons in Green Bay clearly made Rodgers press last season, but questions about his deterioration are going to linger until he proves he can round back into form in the Big Apple.
In New York, Rodgers will have a very talented offense that boasts the likes of Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, Allen Lazard and Breece Hall. With one the league’s most feared defenses, Rodgers is poised to have a bounce-back season. While those questions we brought up are valid, A-Rod should never be counted out and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back to posting truly elite QB1 numbers. While his ADP isn’t going to rise much as nobody really knows just how long he’s going to continue playing, the move at least brings some excitement back to having him on your dynasty roster and makes him a prime trade candidate for contending teams.
Jordan Love, QB GB
It’s amazing to really think about it, but the Packers have really only had two starting quarterbacks since 1992, the math wizards out there tell me that’s 30 years. When Favre left in 2007, Green Bay knew what they had in Rodgers. With A-Rod now on his way to New York, the Packers are moving forward again, but this time they really have little idea what they have in Love. With only parts of ten games under his belt and three total touchdown passes to his name, Love clearly has a lot to prove. Still, he’s sat behind Rodgers since 2020 and inevitably learned a lot in the process. He’s a true wild card in dynasty leagues, but his ADP is clearly going to rise exponentially now that he’s presumably going to be the future in Green Bay.
Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, QBs NYJ
Well, the Zach Wilson era sure was fun. Expect him to be moved in the coming weeks (or even during the draft) as the Jets have clearly soured on him. As for Flacco, it’s unlikely he returns as Rodgers’ backup as the Jets have added Tim Boyle. Mike White has also found his way to Miami, leaving him out of the mix. Wilson desperately needs a change of scenery and hopefully he’ll get that and grow up in the process. Wilson could be kept on deep superflex dynasty rosters, but his value is tanking by the day.
Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
Boom! Wilson was somehow able to post a 83/1.103/4 season last year with the Jets, despite having one of the worst quarterback situations known to man attempting to get him the football. As the new WR1 for Rodgers, expect Wilson to take another step forward. While expecting vintage Davante Adams-like numbers is foolish, he really does have the talent to be a true WR1 in dynasty leagues and this should give him a nice short-term boost in value. While Rodgers isn’t the long-term answer he needs, Wilson will surely rise to around 10th overall in our ADP and has a real chance to go nuclear in year two.
Elijah Moore, WR CLE
It may be weird so see Moore’s name here, but we really didn’t have much of a chance to talk about his move as we’ve been waiting to see what the Jets ended up doing. A popular dynasty league sleeper at this time last year, Moore had a dreadful season that featured just 37 catches, 446 receiving yards, one touchdown and one trade request that was granted to Cleveland. It was hard to blame Moore, who just couldn’t get anything going with the rotating mess at quarterback. He just missed his chance at Rodgers but has a legitimate chance to take a value leap in year three with Deshaun Watson and his ADP is going to rise as a result of his trade. While dynasty managers shouldn’t overpay to get him, he looks like a solid and exciting addition to a roster.
Corey Davis, WR NYJ
Davis has just never lived up to the hype in his NFL career. Once thought of as the next big thing at the position, he’s just never been able to post consistent enough numbers to be counted on. He’s been a popularly rumored trade candidate this off-season, so we’ll see what happens in the coming days, especially because the Jets have already added Hardman and Lazard. If Davis was to stick, he could certainly have a solid season next year as Rodgers would clearly represent a huge upgrade in terms of quarterbacks he’s played with in Tennessee and New York.
Breece Hall, RB NYJ
The torn ACL suffered by Hall last season was one of the worst injuries of the year in fantasy leagues. The good news is Hall should be back soon and the addition of Rodgers, even in the short-term, is going solidify his spot in the top ten in our dynasty rankings. Hall is a star in the making and he won’t see stacked boxes like he did last season. His rushing and receiving numbers could be massive if Rodgers rounds back into form next year and he recovers well from his knee injury.
Christian Watson, WR GB
If there’s a loser in this deal, it’s likely Watson. After a dreadfully slow start, Watson really came on at the end of the season, posting 41 catches for 611 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Ironically, all seven of those touchdowns came in a four-game span where he established himself as a weekly starter in dynasty leagues. While he should naturally improve from year one to year two, we’re going to need to see something from Jordan Love before his ADP starts to rise again.
Romeo Doubs, WR GB
Much like Watson, Doubs is going to surely miss having Aaron Rodgers at the helm. After a monster preseason and training camp, Doubs just didn’t produce the way many thought he would and struggled to a 42/425/3 season. Also much like Watson, we’re going to need to see just what Jordan Love can do in order to feel good about his ADP moving up at any point soon.
Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman, WRs NYJ
The distribution of targets is going to be very interesting this season. We can safely assume Garrett Wilson leads the team but it’s likely Lazard finishes second. Hardman has never really lived up to the hype but he’ll get his chances as well. Tyler Conklin, CJ Uzomah, Denzel Mims and some rookies will all likely be in the mix, too. At this point, Lazard looks like a possible flex play this season and Hardman is on a flex watch list. We’ll see what this depth chart looks like after Thursday, however.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
Where would you rank Love in comparison to the rookie QB’s? 1QB league with any FA players also available in rookie draft.
