We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Michael Pittman, WR IND
Pittman has been a tease since he entered the league. A big-bodied outside receiver who thrives in contested catches and has been a high-volume target. However, he has never truly put it all together to break out as a fantasy star. He is in the final year of his contract with yet another new quarterback under center. What does this mean for his dynasty value?
Previous Performance
The young receiver entered the league as an early second-round pick of the Colts in the 2020 draft. He did not blow up in his rookie year, only commanding a 10% target share. That wasn't hugely surprising as a rookie on a playoff team. He was behind TY Hilton, Nyheim Hines, and Zach Pascal in raw targets. However, during his second year, Pittman showed up. He led the Colts in targets by over 60 from the next on the list. He meshed well with Carson Wentz, seeing a 24.8% target share on his way to an overall WR18 finish. It wasn't a genuinely elite breakout, but a top-24 finish in his second year placed Pittman on the path to future fantasy stardom, and heading into his third year, there was hope he would take another step forward.
In 2022 the Colts saw yet another quarterback change, with Matt Ryan replacing Wentz. Things were going well through the first six weeks of the season with Pittman, the WR9 in points per game, and two top 6 weeks. Unfortunately, the Colts' season then went off the rails, and there were head coaching and multiple quarterback changes, and Pittman's performance struggled. Through the remaining games, Pittman finished as the WR27 for an overall season finish of WR20.
This is a great read! I just got a trade offer for Pittman. I’m a contender (10 team/SF/PPR/Start 9) and have no clue what to do. I was offered breece and waddle for Pittman, DJM and 2 24 firsts (likely in the 3-6 range) Pittman and djm are both on my bench, and breece would pair with bijan for the next forever. Is that too much to pay for breece and waddle? It does seem like fair market value. Thanks!
Should send this question to the Forum rooms, but “yes please” for a competing squad.
Thanks Ed! I’ve had my finger over the accept button about 20 times today, just need to pull the trigger on it.
Thanks! I’m rolling out AJB, Dk, Godwin, Deebo and also grabbed Johnson, Addison and flowers in the rookie draft, so I’m in a pretty solid spot I think.
