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Later tonight, the fantasy playoffs will begin for many of us as quarterback Peyton Manning leads the Broncos into Oakland to face the Raiders in what should be a blowout win. Hopefully, Manning along with wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker get your fantasy week off to a strong start.
For those of you who were unfortunate enough to miss the playoffs, now is the time to begin analyzing your team, finding ways to improve for 2013. Last week, we took a look at some strategies owners should implement as they work the dynasty waiver wire this off-season. While manipulating the waiver wire can be very important, it limits owners to a relatively small group of players. To be successful in dynasty and in order to acquire certain players, owners must be proficient in the skill of trading.
When attempting to complete a dynasty trade, there are numerous factors owners must consider: status of their own fantasy team, players to target, the challenge of dealing with other owners, and many others. One of the most important factors in finalizing a trade is often overlookedβ¦timing. Each playerβs value is fluid, constantly fluctuating just as the seasons change.
For dynasty owners, there are only two segments of a calendar year, regular season and off-season. The current value of your dynasty assets is greatly dependent on which portion of the year we are enjoying. During the season, owners value production. In the off-season, the focus moves to potential. Today, we will take a look at some groups of dynasty assets and how timing plays a role in potential trades.
Rookie Draft Picks
Best time to sell
Even in a year with a rookie draft class that is expected to be very weak as compared to other recent classes, owners will have a chance to unload their draft picks. The most opportune time to pawn off those unwanted or unneeded picks is during the period beginning with the NFL combine in late February up until the kickoff of your leagueβs rookie draft. While many owners in your league may follow college football and consider themselves expert talent scouts, the rookie hype kicks into full swing on a Sunday morning in Indianapolis, the site of the annual rookie scouting combine. As speedy running back and tall, lanky wide receivers display their skills, dynasty owners begin drooling over the idea of adding that player to their NFL (and fantasy) team. The ultimate time to make a move is once the rookie draft has actually started and the value of the incoming rookie class is first decided. Savvy owners should take advantage of this and sell draft picks that may not fit into their long-term plan.
Best time to buy
On the other hand, the ideal time to acquire draft picks is as far away from the draft as possible. Many owners are willing to sell out in an effort to win during the regular season. That means using anything of value without hurting their current starting lineup. The easiest way to do that is by completing deals involving draft picks for players. Whether your team is in contention or not, you should always be willing to consider acquiring draft picks, with the idea mentioned above that those picks will increase in value as the draft nears. I know many owners have been eyeing the 2014 draft class as one that stands out. While this may be true, it is not even necessary to have a specific class or player in mind when acquiring picks. Stock up on picks and let the rookie hype do the rest.
Aging Veterans
Best time to sell
This is probably an easy one. The best time to trade away those older veteran players is during the regular season when they can make the difference between an owner winning or losing a championship. As soon as the off-season begins, the value of any player over 30 years of age plummets. For many of those players, Autumn marks the beginning of the regular season and the return of their value, but for some, the value will never rise back to its peak. Players like Andre Johnson, Tom Brady and Frank Gore will all decrease over the next few weeks as regular seasons end and off-seasons begin. If you own any of these players or players like them, do not sell low this off-season. Take the gamble that they will be one of the lucky ones that sees their value rise back once we hit September.
Best time to buy
If the above is true and long time fantasy studs see their value dip just because the off-season begins, perceptive owners should be ready to pounce. The best and cheapest time to buy aging veterans is during the off-season. You may be able to acquire the final piece of your championship puzzle by February. Assess your teamβs needs and seek out the owners that become infatuated with potential over production. There are always a few. I know, I am one of them.
Rising Stars
Best time to sell
The first two categories were pretty easy to decipher. This one is more of a challenge, which is fitting, since it is always a challenge to determine which hyped young player will be the next Demaryius Thomas or which may just be the next Titus Young. As I mentioned above, older players are discounted and discarded during the off-season and the up-and-coming players become all the rage. Owners find a sense of pride in identifying and acquiring the next big thing. Because of that, the best time to sell a young, rising star is during the off-season. Be careful though, you might be selling the next fantasy stud. Dynasty owners have watched games, done the research and had countless conversations on the DLF forums and Twitter. If there is a player you truly believe in, those are the ones to hold.
Best time to buy
I can see both sides of this argument. If a young, rising star is performing well, but not quite well enough to earn the role as a weekly fantasy starter, the time to buy that player is during the regular season. Acquiring a player like Josh Gordon, who has been very good, but somewhat inconsistent may be easier as a team looks to make a playoff run and requires a safer option at wide receiver. If a young player has performed as a top 30 player at running back or wide receiver, his owners will be expecting a jump up to RB1/WR1 status and that playerβs asking price is through the roof. At the same time, if you truly believe a player is on the brink of superstardom, you have to acquire him before itβs too late. I am reminded of a trade that took place in my league early last off-season involving players that were rising stars at that time. One owner traded Beanie Wells for Torrey Smith. Smith was coming off of an inconsistent rookie season that saw him make a few big plays, while Wells had just posted his best season of his career. This was a trade that made many owners stop and consider the value of each player. Most thought Wells did not bring enough value. But, the owner believed in Torrey Smith and paid whatever price it took, before his value increased. Although Smith has been inconsistent again this season, it certainly worked out and the owner added value to his team.
Not all players considered to be rising stars become fantasy studs. For this category, it comes down to your evaluation of each specific player. One thing is certain, during the off-season, dynasty owners fall in love with young up-and-coming players. You have to decide how to take advantage of that fact.
Fantasy Studs
Best time to sell
As I mentioned above, owners value production during the regular season more so than during the off-season, Because of that, if you do decide to part with that stud player, the regular season and specifically, at your leagueβs trade deadline, is the prototypical time to pull off a blockbuster deal. If you are moving on from a stud player, it is likely that you are a building team, meaning your trade targets would fit with the criteria listed above – rookie draft picks and rising stars. Both make good regular season trade targets and that fits with your building strategy. If you are looking to move a stud player, running back Arian Foster for example, you are likely to get better offers once the regular season begins. Owners often nitpick even the best players in the game during the off-season, yet once the games begin, it is hard to argue against stellar production and fantasy points being produced.
Best time to buy
As you could guess at this point, the finest time to attain a dynasty stud is during the off-season. Owners quickly forget the touchdowns, the long runs and acrobatic catches. Those images are replaced with assessing age and number of quality years remaining. While this type of information is important, it is easy to overthink these things and talk ourselves into valuing a rising star more than a proven stud. Acquiring a stud can actually be done somewhat easily by packaging multiple players in a deal. I made a huge trade very soon before the 2012 regular season began. Many felt I overpaid, but I was comfortable with my depth and did not think I would have the same trade opportunity once the season began. In an eight player deal, I sent Matt Ryan, Antonio Brown, Kendall Wright, Jacquizz Rodgers and Lestar Jean packing. In exchange, I received AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham and Jon Baldwin. While I am a big fan of some of the players I gave up, I would do this deal again easily to acquire Green. Although my leaguemate in this case is a great dynasty owner, he went on to miss the playoffs while I finished as the top overall seed. I believe if I had waited, the same deal may not have been available during the regular season.
Stashes
Best time to sell
Last week, I discussed several players that were candidates to snag off your waiver wire and stash during the off-season. The great thing about these players is you literally have nothing invested in them. If they do nothing and are cut before a preseason game, youβve lost nothing. On the other hand, if there is some positive buzz and the player starts earning more practice reps, you suddenly have a hot commodity on your hands. For dynasty owners, much of the off-season, especially when training camps are underway, is spent searching for the next sleeper. A player that no one in your league has heard of. A player just sitting on the waiver wire waiting to be plucked and placed on your roster. A player like Marques Colston, who went from a little known wide receiver/tight end hybrid to a top dynasty wide receiver very quickly. A player like Tony Romo, who was available in every league before being named the starting quarterback of Americaβs Team. The bad news is for every Marques Colston and Tony Romo, there are dozens of players likeΒ Kareem HugginsΒ and Max Hall.
If a player is earning this hype, the first step is to see for yourself if it is deserved. With NFL Network and Twitter, training camp and preseason action is completely covered. There is really no reason to take anyone elseβs word for it when it comes to these relatively unknown players. The information is available for all. With the understanding that most of these players will not pan out, if you can add value to your team by flipping one of your stashes in a trade, you should most likely do that. Earlier, in the most recent preseason, one rookie who impressed many others and myself was wide receiver Rod Streater. He was performing well in preseason games and seemed to have an opportunity for playing time. I immediately stashed Streater in every league I could. Owners in most dynasty leagues did the same thing, but one move caught my attention. In one league, an owner gave up a future firstΒ round pick for Streater. This was overkill. While I still like Streater, I still view him as a dynasty stash and someone I would likely cash in if I had the opportunity.
Best time to buy
There really is never a good time to acquire a stash player via trade. Stashes are what they are – lottery tickets you add to your team via the waiver wire. In the example above, while I was quick to add Streater, I did miss out on him in several leagues. It would not have been wise to make trade offers for him in those leagues. Based on the hype alone, he would have required sending a second, or even a firstΒ round pick, in exchange for. That makes no sense. Pay close attention to preseason action, and be quick to hit your waiver wire when the buzz begins. But if you miss out on a player, in most cases, it is better to be patient as the situation works itself out.
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Who would be the better stash Rod Streater or Brian Quick? I currently have Quick and Streater is on the free agent market. It seems like Streater has the better change of becoming a starter faster than Quick. What do you think?
Streater has closed the gap on Quick this year, but the long-term QB situation in Oakland is murky, so I would still prefer to stash Quick.
Quick was expected to be the WR1 for STL, whereas I have no idea what Streater will be. At the beginning of the season, I thought Moore would be the WR1, DHB would be leaving this offseason and Criner would be the WR2. I think Streater has outperformed Criner and will be the WR2 if DHB leaves.
Quick, however, seems to have been passed over for Givens. Both are raw players, so either could become the WR1, but Givens has speed that lets him be a deep threat. I think his upside is higher, but nothing is set in stone with this offense.
I’d try to drop someone else and keep both Quick and Streater. I grabbed Streater off waivers and love it, whereas the Quick owner spent a late first on him. If you invested a first, I would hold onto your investment in Quick.
Thanks for the reply – I actually picked up Quick from the weaver wire from a impatient owner. I do have Emanuel Sanders which I am intrigued by the possibility of him starting next year if Wallace leaves however I wonder if Streater would be a better option than Sanders?
Yeah we are only a 10 team at this point but, we are expanding to a 12 team league next year. I do like Sanders future but, do not have any extra kickers or defense at this time to add Streater as I am trying to get all the rising stars I can before we expand next year. I will evaluate my roster to see if I have a spot for streater. Thanks
If it is only a 10 team, it depends entirely on how deep the rosters are.
In 32+ rosters (IDP, I don’t play any dynasties that are non IDP, so I am not sure what the equal number would be for team defense leagues), I would be happy to stash both on my bench. I would find someone to drop to do so.
If you have a taxi squad, Streater is most likely better than at least 1-2 of your taxi guys.
If you have relatively shallow benches, just keep an eye on him and don’t worry. If you think Streater is going to do something before the end of the year, pick him up– I don’t expect Quick to do anything to change his value.
Quick went mid-2nd round (pick 21) in my league. Because of where he was drafted last year, Quick probably has more name value on the trading block. Obviously Sreater has no trade value in your league if he’s a free agent. If they are close in value to you, another option would be to grab Streater, and then try to trade Quick for a 2nd rounder. Someone who missed out on Quick last year will still want to stash him for next year. Perhaps the Bradford or Givens owner…
Thanks I will try to see if I can trade Quick!
Nice article. I’m fairly new to dynasty, but my overall strategy is to buy low on rising stars anytime I can. Stockpile RB3s and WR4s and TE2s and wait for them to emerge as starters or trade bait. Worked for me last year, as Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles emerged as my team’s MVPs on the way to a championship.
This year, not so much…JStewart (traded away Ridley), Titus Young, Amendola’s injury, Tampa Mike’s inconsistency, and now I’m looking at 1.05.
While it is a good strategy, here are my thoughts:
1- Don’t trade studs for a bunch of prospects. “Rising stars” don’t always rise. Graham is looking like a great pickup for anyone who drafted him late, but he is an exception.
2- If forced to choose, choose talent over opportunity unless you want to trade someone. For example, I often choose a player that I don’t “love” because I think they will have a great opportunity and I can sell them high. However, if they don’t perform, don’t get the opportunity or nobody likes them, you are stuck with someone.
An example is I drafted Ben Tate thinking that he would have a perfect opportunity in Houston. There was great opportunity, but Foster took advantage instead (also due to Tate being injured). Or I took Moreno due to the opportunity in DEN, whereas I liked McCoy’s talent better. Wish I could redo that one.
3- Finding a way to separate the “rising stars” from the “flash in the pan” is the tricky part. One way that I try to do this is I continue to factor in NFL draft position and fantasy draft position until the end of the second year, whereas I have leaguemates who I think I am stupid and only consider production.
For example, I still have Vereen and hope he does something, because I drafted him in the 1st and thought that he was the better RB than Ridley coming out. Hasn’t turned out that way, but he shows flashes of his talent, and given greater opportunity, I think he could still be really good. I tend to pick up a lot of guys that were dropped by other teams too early.
That said, I miss out on guys like Morris or Cruz who were drafted low and extremely outperformed. I need to adjust to also take a stab at these guys, but I don’t know how to differentiate them from the masses that never produce.
The other day I traded Knowshon Moreno for a middle rounder…good trade?
Also should I try to shop Bryce Brown and if so what is he worth?
My backs are Rice TRich and Mathews along with a hand full of others
First year in dynasty!
All players kept, rookie draft only and didn’t make playoffs.
Thanks for the help!
Middle 3rd rounder*
Great article with good dynasty fundamentals. Much appreciated.
in a ten team,,, 20 man roster,,(no idp),,, trying to gauge the value of bryce brown. i read the earlier post saying “1++”,, i have foster and tate / murray and jones and nothing else after that,, or should i wait out the philly situation for brown to be a viable starting back
Articles like these are ones i love to share with my General Managers. In our Inaugural season this year and these articles are great to help baby step my players through the processes and get them used to trading regular and looking at the future and implications it brings at each position. I probably speak for quite a few others in saying that these type of articles are fantastic not just for single players looking to gain an edge, but also for entire leagues looking to build a strong foundation to play on. Thanks DLF and please keep these coming Ryan!