Iβve noticed weβve acquired quite a few new members in the forums lately and thatβs terrific.Β Many of them are asking questions about how to approach their dynasty start-ups.Β I thought Iβd take time to do a quick article for the newer folks on some basic strategies that will hopefully provide an edge.Β (Note: This article assumes non-IDP and WCOFF scoring/line-up.)
Recommendation One:Β Know Your Format
Seems obvious, but people donβt always take the time to make sure they understand the lineup, scoring rules and any special waiver wire limitations.Β Just make sure you understand the format going into your draft.Β Enough said on this one.
Recommendation Two: Wait to Draft
If you are starting a new league (or joining an existing one) and can influence the timing of the draft, Iβd recommend pushing it as close to redraft season as possible.Β I know thereβs a lot of excitement right now and many start-ups are already taking place. Β However, much is still in flux right now with free agency just getting underway.Β I know itβs tempting to do the draft now because itβs fun, but if the league has a mix of experienced and novice dynasty players, doing it early is going to provide even more of an advantage to the veteran players.Β They understand better how to predict the impacts of free agency, probably know more about player situations and likely impacts of the NFL draft, etc.Β Give the new guys a break – it will make your leagues more competitive.
Recommendation Three: Draft Using ADP (Average Draft Position) rather than Rank Lists
After years of playing dynasty and participating in many start-ups and even more βexpertβ mocks, Iβve come to believe that drafting using ADP rather than rank lists is the way to go.
Sites that host dynasty leagues (e.g. MyFantasyLeague) make available the results of all of the start-up drafts.Β Fantasy analysts like our friends at ProFootballFocus.com crank through this data and produce rankings based on average draft position and provide commentary on where they think the value lies.Β While the commentary is enjoyable, the real value from my perspective lies in the ADPs themselves.
There are several reasons why ADP is my preferred approach:
- Thereβs the notion of “Wisdom of the Crowd.” Β Studies in a wide range of fields have shown the predictive value an individual βexpertβ is generally no better, and often worse, than the collective opinion of a large group of people.Β This is especially applicable when the problem involves predicting outcomes based on large amounts of generally available information β which is certainly the case in a start-up draft.
- As Iβve written about in prior articles, my focus in building a dynasty team is to amass a collection of the most valuable player assets.Β ADP is the clearest indicator of player value that we have.Β Nothing gives us a more pure assessment of the relative value of one player vs. another as does the data provided by aggregation of a sufficient number of start-up drafts.Β If Dez Bryant is being drafted a round ahead of Jeremy Maclin, then he has more trade value (at least for now).Β It doesnβt necessarily mean that heβs going to outperform Maclin, but it certainly means that the collective body of dynasty players puts more value on Dez.Β Individual owners may differ on the relative values and thatβs where trade opportunities arise.
- Balance the ADP against position selections.Β For example, if you already have two solid WRs but havenβt drafted a QB, it might be time to reach a little.Β If there is a QB close to the top ADP who you like, itβs okay to take him rather than blindly following the list.Β The ADP is just a guide – you need to build the team that you want.Β Itβs going to be yours for a long, long time.
- ADP is a powerful tool for assessing trade offers both during and after your draft.Β Iβll get in to this a bit more in a minute.
Recommendation Four:Β Accumulate Picks in the First Five Rounds
This recommendation could almost be called a rule.Β Trust me when I say the experienced players in your new league will be looking to accumulate picks in the top-60 (first five rounds in a 12-team league).
The top-60 players are all being drafted as week in and week out no brainer starters for fantasy.Β So if you are able to acquire extra players in this tier, you have a leg up.Β Plus, as you begin to review ADP lists, youβll likely notice the perceived value of the players around pick #60-#70 does drop off.Β In round four, players like Miles Austin, Stevie Johnson and Aaron Hernandez are going off the board.Β While in round six itβs players like Michael Crabtree, Roy Helu and tier two quarterbacks like Matt Ryan and Tony Romo.Β Clearly the players in round six have value, but itβs a far cry from the talent in round four.
So, what does this mean from a strategy perspective?
If you are new to dynasty, you need to be very careful in analyzing any offer to trade picks, but especially offers to trade up in the early rounds.Β Hereβs a typical shark move:Β Iβm sitting at 1.05 and you are at 1.11.Β I offer to swap firsts with you selling you on the fact that you are now guaranteed to get one of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson or Aaron Rodgers.Β And βallβ I ask for in return is your 4.02 for my 7.05.Β You, the newbie, get very excited about getting an βeliteβ talent and donβt adequately contemplate what just happened in the second part of that trade β which is the more important part to me.Β Iβm totally fine getting the likes of AJ Green, Julio Jones or Matt Forte at 1.11.Β And instead of a guy like Pierre Garcon or LeGarrette Blount in the seventh round, Iβm getting another every week lead pipe lock starter with your fourth.
Use your ADP list to analyze the offers to trade picks.Β It really helps to put names to faces by looking at who is going right around all the picks being discussed in a potential trade.
Recommendation Five:Β Know the Value of Future Rookie Picks
At the risk of making the sharks in the forums angry with me, Iβm going to let you in on another secret.Β We test to see if owners in our start-ups overvalue future picks.Β Frankly, itβs much harder to gauge the value of a future rookie pick than a mid-round start up pick.Β At least with the start-up pick you have your trusty ADP list.Β Thereβs even less clarity about the future rookie picks.
When you get a trade offer involving a future rookie pick, you need to go through the same type of analysis as described above.Β Of course you canβt put a name to the rookie pick and thatβs what makes it more uncertain.Β The very best approach is to use an ADP list that includes rookie picks.Β Many early start-ups will draft rookie picks along with veteran players.Β Of course those are this yearβs picks, but thatβs as good an ADP as you are going to get.Β If by chance you donβt have access to an ADP list with rookie slots mixed in, then my rule of thumb is a next yearβs first is worth about a seventh or eighth round veteran selection.Β And a second is more like a fourteenth or fifteenth rounder.
Recommendation Six: Give the Edge to Youth
Most people joining the ranks of dynasty players are making the leap from simple redraft leagues.Β As much as we all know that dynasty is about the long haul, itβs hard for those with deep redraft experience to divorce themselves from drafting for immediate production β but they need to.
I donβt play much redraft and obviously there is little to no ADP data out there for 2012, but Iβm guessing guys like Frank Gore and Michael Turner will still go as RB#2s in the fourth round or so.Β These guys need to still be on the board into the seventh, eighth or ninth rounds in dynasty.Β Goreβs dynasty ADP will (correctly) put him several rounds behind guys like Beanie Wells and Mark Ingram, but itβs relatively likely that heβll outscore those guys.Β You can draft Gore at the right time, but you need to view him as a one or two year βrentalβ that has similar trade value to guys in his ADP range.Β Gore might well help you win a championship year one, but heβs going to quickly wither on your bench.
On the flip side, as the draft gets later and later (and you already have your core group), taking shots on guys who are falling too far is absolutely fine.Β I was in an expertβs start-up last year and was able to get Fred Jackson with the 10.01, Steve Smith (CAR) with the 10.06 and Tony Gonzalez with the 12.01.Β Because I already had a core of youth, I took some shots in the mid-rounds that really paid off.Β Just watch the flow of the draft and when in doubt take the younger player.
Editorβs Note:Β Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as tstafford.
Nice content. What are some of the most original names you have come across? Last season, I called myself KMA (due to the lack of respect I received from the other owners en route to a championship title). This season, I am hoping to land Richardson to pair with Rice and I will call the team “A little R&R”
3 thumbs down…ouch. Tough crowd. Lol.
Well done once again Tim! Great insight that commissioners of all start-ups this season should make a must read for anyone new to dynasty.
This one brings back memories——
Recommendation Five: Know the Value of Future Rookie Picks
Let the sharks get angry. In a free league there’s no room for these type maneuvers you describe. I was offered for my 2.05 start-up pick a 1.r from each of the next 2 years by one of these sharks…. happened to be the commish too… which in my mind made it even worse. Of course I rejected and selected ARod. In a money league – caveat emptor.
i know this is off topic… but does anyone have any advice for starting a fantasy baseball league?
I love dynasty league football… like all of us do… and would like to put together a dynasty baseball league.
however it gets complicated with the minor league systems.
any advice would be appreciated!
We have to stick to the topic Coach or face the wrath of the downward thumb!
baseball sucks it stopped being cool sometime during the reagan adminisitration ……. football 24/7/12/365
Great advice, Tim. Beginners would do well to follow these basic steps for optimized success.
What website would you recommend for starting a dynasty. My friends and I use ESPN
for our re-draft league, but it doesn’t have many dynasty features, and I was wondering if there were any good sites you recommend.
Myfantasyleague.com is what we use
works well for us. It’s not free though.
Nice article for the newbies. I like use the ADP strategy in my redraft leagues also but if you gonna start up a dynasty league I would strongly suggest using an auction draft instead of the same ole snake. The auction draft gives Everyone a shot at EVERY player. The studs don’t just goto the lucky first few picks. You have to pay for studs at the value you deem fit.
I see in the note for the article that it assumes non-IDP. I am starting a 16 team dynasty full IDP league this year, so how does this article not apply to IDP? My guess is just double all the values (like where you say after rd 4 in a 12 team leage the lock players are gone) and also adjust for having 16 teams, not 12. Or do IDP workmout differently in your strategy?
The reason the article wouldn’t apply to IDP is the recommendations around pick values and accumulating picks in the first five rounds. In IDP drafts later round picks carry more value because the player pool is obviously deeper.
Very nice write. It’s a shame how much information we can find on rookie drafts, rankings, et cetera, but not simple start-up aids.
It is important to point out that most ADPs do NOT account for format. If you use a blanket MFL ADP in a start 2 QB league, you’re in trouble.
I was surprised that there was NO mention of tiers. Often in a draft, you must draft a player over someone you have ranked higher. That wasn’t really covered in the article. Trade back when your tiers are full, trade up when they are thin. Seems like an imporant bit of information for new owners.
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own blog and was wondering what all is required to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours
would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web smart so I’m
not 100% sure. Any tips or advice would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks
this should be updated
I’m new to the site and found it interesting that back in 2012 Frank Gore was used as the example of the “one or two year rentalβ and here we are in 2017 and he’s still a starter and averaged 1,293 scrimmage yards and 7.6 TDs over those last 5 years without missing a single game!
I’m not questioning the thought process of the piece as I’m sure that was what most experts were thinking, but rather applauding the player for maintaining this level well into his 30s and absolutely building his case for the HOF!
update needed
The overall philosophy here is nice but something that is 10 years old isnβt incredibly helpful for newer players (which is what this article is geared towards)